Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp (AGM) · Nov 5, 2026 · Earnings
Miss — GAAP EPS $5.03 vs ~$5.20 consensus
Farmer Mac’s Q3 earnings brought record business volume and revenue, but EPS fell short of consensus as credit provisions increased.
Farmer Mac is expanding its secondary-market financing platform across agriculture and rural infrastructure, with renewable energy, broadband, and power demand driving the newer growth pockets. The pre-filing story was continued volume expansion into those markets, while agricultural credit conditions remained a known operating risk.
The quarter beat on scale, but not on the bottom line. Outstanding business volume reached $38.5 billion, up 24% year over year, and revenue was $122.7 million, above the published consensus of roughly $121.3 million. The problem is earnings: diluted GAAP EPS was $5.03 versus consensus near $5.20, while diluted core EPS was $4.82, down 11% sequentially despite growing 7% year over year. 〔0〕
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2025 | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outstanding business volume (Key Highlights) | $38.5B (+24%) | $37.2B | $31.1B | |
| Revenue (Financial Highlights) | $122.7M (+17%) | $125.2M | $105.1M | ~$121.3M |
| Diluted GAAP EPS (Press release) | $5.03 (+13%) | $5.41 | $4.44 | ~$5.20 |
| Diluted core EPS (Quarterly non-GAAP performance) | $4.82 (+7%) | $5.40 | $4.52 | |
| Provision for losses (Income Statement) | $11.1M | $7.4M | $7.4M |
Growth is broad, but the mix is becoming more credit-intensive. Infrastructure Finance expanded $0.9 billion during the quarter, led by roughly $0.6 billion of renewable-energy growth, while broadband and renewable-energy volumes were each up 56% year over year. That supports the company’s expansion narrative, but the quarter also carried higher credit costs: provision for losses rose to $11.1 million, including updated loss estimates tied to a single broadband telecommunications credit. 〔1〕
The balance sheet still supports continued expansion, though capital efficiency softened. Farmer Mac ended the quarter with $1.9 billion of capital, 62% above minimum requirements, and an adjusted operating efficiency ratio of 27.5%, below its 30% target. But the Tier 1 capital ratio declined to 12.9% from 13.2% in the prior quarter, while core return on common equity fell to 16.3% from 18.9% as equity grew. 〔2〕
Bottom line: Farmer Mac is still executing its volume-growth strategy, especially in infrastructure finance, but Q3 translated that growth into a below-consensus earnings result because credit provisions and the tougher comparison with Q2 weighed on profitability. The business story remains intact, but this filing is a modest setback rather than a clean continuation of the prior quarter’s earnings momentum.
Q3 earnings conference call, November 5
A buy-side analyst on every ticker — it reads every public company's filing the instant it drops and decodes it into plain English.
A buy-side analyst on every ticker — the whole market decoded the second it moves, before it's a headline. Free gives you a taste. Pro takes the cap off and opens the full read on every company.
by Signing in NOW, claim your FREE 14-day Pro trial!