National Fuel Gas Co (NFG) · Nov 5, 2026 · Earnings
National Fuel earnings beat, but FY2027 guidance trails consensus
Beat — Adjusted EPS $1.22 vs ~$1.04 consensus; FY2027 guide midpoint $6.20 vs ~$7.25 consensus
National Fuel’s earnings beat estimates, but new FY2027 guidance sits materially below consensus as the company funds Ohio growth and its planned spin-off.
National Fuel is midway through a major reshaping: it has just added Ohio’s regulated gas utility and is preparing to spin its Appalachian upstream-and-gathering business into Seneca Resources in the second half of calendar 2027. The separation plan itself was announced on October 14, 2026, so the strategic direction was already known; this filing adds the first full-year outlook around that new structure.
The quarter beat the earnings bar, but the revenue backdrop was softer. Adjusted EPS was $1.22, matching the company’s prior-year figure and beating the published consensus of roughly $1.04 by about $0.18. Revenue was $467.8 million versus roughly $472.6 million expected, so the beat came from mix, hedging, lower interest expense and taxes rather than broad-based top-line outperformance. The filing says, “Excluding items impacting comparability, adjusted earnings increased $8.5 million from the prior year.”
| Figure | Q4 2026 | Q4 2025 | Consensus |
|---|
| Adjusted EPS (Adjusted Earnings) | $1.22 | $1.22 | ~$1.04 |
| Reported diluted EPS (Summary of Operations) | $1.02 | $1.18 | |
| Revenue (Summary of Operations) | $467.8M | $456.4M | ~$472.6M |
| Adjusted EBITDA (Adjusted EBITDA) | $297.0M | $300.4M | |
The operating engine was mixed rather than cleanly accelerating. Upstream benefited from a 7% increase in realized prices after hedging, but production fell 7% to 104 Bcf and total operating costs rose $0.12 per Mcf. Pipeline and Storage earnings declined 6%, while Utility earnings improved modestly as regulatory recovery and customer margin gains partly offset higher operating costs. The filing says, “During the fourth quarter, Seneca produced 104 Bcf of natural gas, a decrease of 7.5 Bcf, or 7%, compared to the prior year.” 〔0〕
| Segment figure | Q4 2026 | Q4 2025 | Change |
|---|
| IUG adjusted EBITDA (Adjusted EBITDA by Segment) | $240.9M | $241.1M | -$0.2M |
| Pipeline & Storage net income (Segment Operating Results) | $26.2M | $27.9M | -$1.7M |
| Utility net loss (Segment Operating Results) | $(15.1)M | $(17.8)M | +$2.7M |
| Realized gas price after hedging (IUG Information) | $2.80/Mcf | $2.61/Mcf | +$0.19 |
| Production (IUG Information) | 104 Bcf | 111.5 Bcf | -7% |
The new fiscal 2027 guide is the filing’s bigger signal—and it is below the market’s bar. National Fuel initiated adjusted EPS guidance of $6.00-$6.40, a midpoint of $6.20, versus contemporaneous published estimates around $7.25-$7.68. That gap is substantial even though the company is incorporating the Ohio utility acquisition and expects regulated earnings to grow; the assumptions also rely on only $2.85 NYMEX gas and include sizable spending across both the utility buildout and the business being separated. The filing says, “The Company is initiating guidance for fiscal 2027.” 〔1〕
| FY2027 figure | Guidance | Prior comparison |
|---|
| Adjusted EPS (FY2027 Guidance) | $6.00-$6.40 | ~$7.25 consensus midpoint |
| NYMEX assumption (FY2027 Guidance) | $2.85/MMBtu | |
| Capital expenditures (FY2027 Guidance) | $1.09B-$1.22B | |
| IUG capital expenditures (FY2027 Guidance) | $600M-$640M | |
| Utility operating income (FY2027 Guidance) | $235M-$255M | |
The separation is progressing, but remains an execution project rather than a completed value unlock. National Fuel still targets a second-half-2027 spin-off, with shareholders expected to receive at least 80.1% of IUG and the company retaining up to 19.9%. The filing also records $9.8 million of spin-off costs during fiscal 2026, while the sharply higher corporate loss reflects both separation costs and Ohio acquisition financing. The filing says, “National Fuel continues to expect the separation to be completed in the second half of calendar 2027.” 〔2〕
Bottom line: The quarter itself beat expectations, but the first fiscal 2027 outlook is materially below the market’s earnings bar. That makes this a modestly negative update overall: operating execution is mixed, while the new guidance resets the near-term growth story lower despite the Ohio utility expansion and planned spin-off.
What to watch next
Section 4 rate case resolution, by December 2026
Original filing on SEC EDGAR
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