National Fuel Gas Co (NFG) · Nov 4, 2026 · Guidance
Guidance issued — FY27 adjusted EPS $6.00-$6.40; production 400-435 Bcf versus 419 Bcf in FY26
National Fuel’s new guidance details the 2027 Seneca Resources spin-off, regulated growth and a near-flat upstream production outlook.
National Fuel is transitioning from an integrated gas company into two businesses: a regulated utility and pipeline platform, plus a standalone Appalachian producer under the planned Seneca Resources spin-off. The separation itself was already announced on October 14, 2026, with completion targeted for the second half of calendar year 2027, so this filing mostly adds operating detail rather than changing the strategic direction. 〔0〕
The regulated business gets the cleaner growth profile. FY27 Pipeline & Storage revenue is guided to $475-$500 million versus $432 million in FY26, while Utility operating income is guided to $235-$255 million versus $123 million. That reflects the full-year contribution from the Ohio utility acquisition and newly completed pipeline projects, making the post-separation National Fuel story more visibly rate-based and recurring. 〔1〕
The upstream story is being managed, not accelerated. FY27 production is guided to 400-435 Bcf versus 419 Bcf in FY26, and the presentation says appraisal results reduced near-term production. The company is shifting toward optimization and expects growth to resume in FY28+, which supports long-term resource economics but pushes the next leg of volume growth out by at least a year.
The new guidance is useful, but there is no clean published consensus to call it a beat or miss. At a $2.85 NYMEX assumption, FY27 adjusted EPS is guided to $6.00-$6.40, with total capital spending of $1.09-$1.22 billion. The more important signal is mix: spending is rising sharply for the enlarged utility while upstream activity remains broadly unchanged, consistent with a lower-volatility regulated platform funding a separate commodity-sensitive producer.
| FY2027 guidance | FY2026 actual | |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS (Initial FY2027 Adjusted EPS Guidance) | $6.00-$6.40 | |
| Production, Bcf (Initial FY2027 Adjusted EPS Guidance) | 400-435 | 419 |
| Pipeline & Storage revenue, $MM (Initial FY2027 Adjusted EPS Guidance) | 475-500 | 432 |
| Utility operating income, $MM (Initial FY2027 Adjusted EPS Guidance) | 235-255 | 123 |
| Total capital expenditures, $MM (Initial FY2027 Adjusted EPS Guidance) | 1,090-1,220 | 1,079 |
Bottom line: This is a modestly constructive operating update, not a new strategic surprise. It strengthens the regulated-growth case and clarifies the spin-off, but the near-term upstream growth story has been deferred rather than improved.
Form 10 filing and separation financing, targeted for 2H 2027
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