Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) · Nov 5, 2026 · Earnings
Miss — Revenue $36.9M vs ~$47M consensus
Akebia’s Q3 earnings missed on sharply lower Auryxia revenue, while Vafseo adoption and pipeline progress strengthened the longer-term story.
Akebia is in a product transition: its legacy Auryxia business is shrinking under generic competition while Vafseo is being built into the commercial growth engine, with rare-kidney pipeline assets still early. The market was looking for roughly $47 million of Q3 revenue and a $0.04-per-share loss; the reported figures came in below both, according to published pre-release estimates.
The quarter missed because the old business is declining faster than the new one is scaling. Revenue was $36.9 million, down from $58.8 million a year earlier, while Auryxia revenue fell to $20.0 million from $42.5 million. The filing explicitly attributes the decline to Auryxia’s generic competition and pricing pressure, making this more than a temporary reporting distortion.
| Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue (Financial Highlights) | $36.9M (-37.2%) | $58.8M | ~$47.0M |
| Vafseo revenue (Financial Highlights) | $14.8M (+3.5%) | $14.3M | |
| Net loss (Income Statement) | $14.4M | $0.5M income | |
| Diluted EPS (Income Statement) | $(0.05) | $0.00 | ~$(0.04) |
| Cash (Balance Sheet) | $159.3M | $184.8M |
Vafseo’s operating momentum is real, but not yet large enough to replace Auryxia. Active patients reached approximately 11,500, up 8.1% sequentially and about 140% from Q3 2025, while prescribers rose to roughly 1,300. 〔0〕 However, Vafseo revenue was only modestly above last year and below Q2 because the largest customer reduced inventory.
The clinical update improves Vafseo’s commercial case, but it is not current revenue. VOCAL met its non-inferiority endpoint, and the VOICE data showed a statistically significant safety improvement versus ESA, driven by fewer hospitalizations. 〔1〕 That supports Akebia’s effort to make Vafseo standard of care, but the economic payoff still depends on broader adoption and reimbursement after TDAPA ends.
Liquidity is adequate for now, but the financing dependency remains. Cash increased modestly from $155.5 million at June 30 to $159.3 million at September 30, even as the company posted a $14.4 million net loss. Management’s two-year runway remains contingent on refinancing its senior secured term loan; principal payments are otherwise scheduled to begin January 1, 2027.
Bottom line: This was a financial miss and confirms that Vafseo has not yet offset Auryxia’s erosion. The longer-term Vafseo story improved through adoption and clinical data, leaving the quarter modestly negative rather than a decisive setback—but the January 2027 reimbursement transition remains the key test.} emociones 玩彩神争霸?
Vafseo post-TDAPA transition in January 2027
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