Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) · Nov 3, 2026 · Earnings

Upstart earnings beat, but 2026 profit guidance is cut

Beat — Revenue $370.5M vs ~$364M consensus; FY EBITDA guide cut to $260M from $294M

Upstart’s Q3 earnings beat revenue expectations and secured lending reached profitability early, but the company cut full-year 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance.

Upstart is in the middle of shifting from a primarily unsecured personal-loan marketplace into a broader lending platform, with Auto and Home products being built as additional profit engines while the company expands funding capacity. Q2 had already established the direction: unsecured growth was reaccelerating, secured products were moving toward breakeven, and management expected secured contribution margin to reach breakeven in Q4.

The quarter beat the top-line bar and showed better operating execution. Total revenue reached $370.5 million, above the published consensus of roughly $364 million, while originations rose 44% year over year to $4.1 billion. The more important quality signal was contribution profit: it reached a record $218.0 million, up nearly 48%, with total contribution margin improving to 60%.

Q3 2026Q3 2025Consensus / prior guide
Total revenue (Income Statement)$370.5M (+33.7%)$277.1M~$364.0M
Revenue from fees (Financial Highlights)$364.0M (+40.8%)$258.5M
Diluted EPS (Income Statement)$0.33$0.23
Contribution margin (Key Metrics)60%57%
Secured contribution margin (Results by Product Category)17%-179%Q4 breakeven target
Adjusted EBITDA (Reconciliation)$89.3M (+25.5%)$71.2M

The secured-products milestone arrived ahead of plan, but it does not erase the macro problem. Auto and Home reached a combined positive 17% contribution margin, versus negative 35% in Q2 and negative 179% a year earlier—one quarter earlier than management’s prior breakeven target. 〔0〕 That advances the diversification story because the newer products are no longer a drag at the contribution level. However, adjusted EBITDA margin still fell to 24% from 26% as operating costs and financing-related pressure grew faster than the headline profit figure.

The forward outlook is the event’s negative surprise. Management reduced full-year total-revenue guidance to approximately $1.35 billion from $1.4 billion and cut adjusted EBITDA to approximately $260 million from $294 million, while fee-revenue guidance edged up to $1.32 billion from $1.3 billion. The mix says the core fee marketplace is holding up, but macro pressure is weakening interest, fair-value, or other profit contributions enough to materially reduce expected bottom-line conversion.

Bottom line: Upstart executed better than expected in Q3 and reached secured-product profitability early, but the lower full-year EBITDA outlook says macro pressure is still overpowering that operational progress. The business story improves underneath, while the near-term earnings outlook gets worse.

What to watch next

Q4 results and 2027 outlook

Original filing on SEC EDGAR

More Upstart Holdings, Inc. news

Upstart earnings beat, but 2026 profit guidance is cut | UPST Stock News
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