OLIN Corp (OLN) · Oct 29, 2026 · Earnings
In line — Adjusted EBITDA $191.4M vs prior $160M-$200M outlook
Olin earnings were broadly in line on adjusted EBITDA, but weaker Chlor Alkali results and higher leverage keep the recovery incomplete.
Olin is navigating a weak global chemicals cycle while repairing VCM operations, cutting costs in Epoxy, growing Winchester, and preparing for its proposed Huntsman merger. Its prior outlook already called for roughly flat third-quarter results, with VCM problems offset by stronger caustic soda and Winchester demand.
The quarter was operationally in line, not a breakout. Adjusted EBITDA of $191.4 million landed inside the previously indicated $160 million-$200 million range, matching the company’s stated expectations, but fell 14% from $222.4 million a year earlier. The $0.13 diluted EPS result was above the roughly $0.10 published consensus, while sales of $1.75 billion were below estimates clustered around $1.79 billion-$1.83 billion, making the headline result mixed rather than a clean beat.
| Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Consensus / guide | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales (Financial Highlights) | $1,747.7M | $1,713.2M | ~$1,790M-$1,830M |
| Diluted EPS (Income Statement) | $0.13 | $0.37 | ~$0.10 |
| Adjusted EBITDA (Adjusted EBITDA) | $191.4M | $222.4M | $160M-$200M guide |
| Chlor Alkali segment earnings (Segment results) | $71.3M | $127.6M | |
| Epoxy segment earnings (Segment results) | $0.6M | $(32.2)M | |
| Winchester segment earnings (Segment results) | $33.8M | $19.3M | |
| Q4 adjusted EBITDA outlook (Outlook) | $80M-$100M |
The business mix remains the central problem. Chlor Alkali and Vinyls earnings fell $56.3 million year over year as lower VCM volumes, the end of Blue Water Alliance trading activity, and Freeport operating issues outweighed better pricing. The company says VCM operations are back to normal, but the damage still showed up in the quarter: $32.1 million of lost profit and higher costs were cited from the plant problems.
Epoxy and Winchester are improving, but they are offsets rather than a full recovery. Epoxy moved from a $32.2 million loss to $0.6 million of earnings on higher volume and lower operating costs, while Winchester earnings rose 75% on commercial ammunition pricing and volume. That improvement is meaningful, but it only partly compensates for the larger Chlor Alkali decline, and management now expects fourth-quarter EBITDA to fall to $80 million-$100 million because of destocking, higher feedstock costs, Asian export pressure, and planned maintenance.
The Huntsman merger advanced, but the balance-sheet backdrop is less comfortable. Shareholder approval and expiration of the U.S. antitrust waiting period remove two important closing hurdles, and Olin now targets a first-quarter 2027 close. 〔0〕 However, net debt to adjusted EBITDA rose to 5.2 times from 3.7 times a year earlier as earnings weakened, even with $1.3 billion of available liquidity. The merger is therefore moving forward while Olin’s standalone earnings power is still under pressure.
Bottom line: Olin delivered what its prior outlook implied, with real progress in Epoxy, Winchester, and merger approvals. But the core chemical engine remains impaired, fourth-quarter guidance is lower, and leverage has worsened—so this is stabilization, not a completed turnaround.
Q3 earnings call, October 30
A buy-side analyst on every ticker — it reads every public company's filing the instant it drops and decodes it into plain English.
A buy-side analyst on every ticker — the whole market decoded the second it moves, before it's a headline. Free gives you a taste. Pro takes the cap off and opens the full read on every company.
by Signing in NOW, claim your FREE 14-day Pro trial!