Greif, Inc (GEF) · Nov 6, 2026 · Earnings

Greif earnings miss as cost cuts cushion weak industrial demand

Miss — Adjusted EPS $0.87 vs published consensus ~$1.09

Greif’s Q4 earnings missed consensus despite stronger underlying margins. A bigger cost-savings target and $645M EBITDA guide preserve the self-help story.

Greif is now a streamlined industrial-packaging company using cost cuts, portfolio pruning and a stronger balance sheet to offset a prolonged industrial downturn. The company has divested containerboard and timberlands, reduced leverage to 1.2x, and is trying to grow through polymers, closures and commercial share gains while demand remains soft.

The quarter missed the market’s earnings bar. Adjusted EPS was $0.87 versus a published consensus around $1.09, despite rising 50% year over year; the shortfall reflects the gap between improved operating execution and still-heavy cost, tax and mix pressure. “Adjusted EPS increased 50% year-over-year in Q4” 〔0〕

Underlying operating execution was better than the headline EBITDA decline. Reported Q4 adjusted EBITDA fell $5 million, but the comparison included an $18.2 million incentive-accrual benefit in the prior-year quarter; excluding that distortion, EBITDA rose $13 million and margins expanded roughly 60 basis points. That is evidence the restructuring program is helping, but it did not overcome the earnings miss. “Adjusted EBITDA declined approximately $5million or 3.1% year-over-year in Q4.”

Demand remains the central constraint. Polymer and metal volumes each fell about 2.3%, closures declined 3.5%, and only fiber grew, up 1.3%. Small-container destocking, weak agriculture and higher resin costs are limiting the payoff from Greif’s commercial efforts, so the $645 million fiscal 2027 EBITDA outlook depends more on price/cost improvement and internal execution than on an industrial recovery. “We have not seen convincing signs of a broad recovery.” 〔1〕

The self-help story strengthened, but cash conversion weakened. Greif exceeded its original $100 million savings commitment early and raised the target to $150 million by fiscal 2027, implying another $45 million of annualized savings. “We're now raising the target to $150million by the end of fiscal '27.” However, fiscal 2026 free cash flow fell short of prior guidance because resin inflation and precautionary inventory buildup absorbed cash. “These elevated inventory balances, combined with higher resin costs, increased our investment in working capital and negatively impacted free cash flow relative to our prior guidance.” 〔2〕

Bottom line: This was an earnings miss, not a breakdown of the turnaround. Greif is executing its cost and portfolio strategy, but weak demand and poor cash conversion mean the business still has to prove that self-help can carry results until industrial volumes recover.

What to watch next

Q1 fiscal 2027 results, early February

Original filing on SEC EDGAR