Vistra Corp. (VST) · Nov 6, 2026 · Earnings

Vistra earnings beat as 2026 guidance rises, liquidity tightens

Beat — Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA $2.378B vs ~$2.1B published estimate

Vistra earnings beat on adjusted EBITDA, with higher 2026 guidance and a stronger 2027 outlook after Cogentrix closes.

Vistra is expanding an integrated power-generation and retail platform around rising U.S. electricity demand, adding roughly 5,500 MW through Cogentrix while pursuing long-term contracts with large loads and data-center customers. Cogentrix closed on October 30, 2026, so the strategic direction was already known; this filing is mainly the first operating test of that larger fleet.

Underlying execution came in ahead of the published bar. Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA reached $2.378 billion, above published analyst estimates of roughly $2.1 billion, while the company said the increase was driven by higher realized energy and capacity prices, the Lotus assets, and Martin Lake Unit 1 returning to service. The quarter also benefited from strong summer demand and nearly 95% commercial fleet availability, but GAAP net income includes sizable mark-to-market gains, so EBITDA is the cleaner read on operating performance.

Metric	Q3 2026 / New	Q3 2025 / Prior	Consensus / Prior guide
Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA (Financial Highlights)	$2,378M (+50.4%)	$1,581M	~$2,100M consensus
Net income (Income Statement)	$1,140M (+74.8%)	$652M
2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance (Guidance)	$7.1B–$7.5B		$6.8B–$7.6B
2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance (Guidance)	$4.3B–$4.7B		$3.925B–$4.725B
2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance (Guidance)	$7.7B–$8.5B		$7.4B–$7.8B opportunity

The guidance reset is the most important new information. Vistra raised the bottom end and midpoint of its 2026 EBITDA outlook while narrowing the range, and lifted free-cash-flow guidance above the prior range’s midpoint. More notably, its initial 2027 EBITDA range starts at $7.7 billion—already above the prior $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion midpoint-opportunity range—suggesting Cogentrix and the broader demand thesis are translating into a larger earnings base than investors had been using before. The comparison is not perfectly like-for-like because the prior 2027 figure was explicitly an opportunity range rather than formal guidance.

The balance-sheet picture is the offset. Vistra authorized another $1.5 billion of buybacks, but the filing also shows roughly $2.2 billion of cash paid for Cogentrix, $1 billion of preferred-stock redemption, and pro forma liquidity falling to approximately $5.4 billion. That does not erase the operating beat, but it means the stronger earnings outlook arrives alongside heavier capital deployment and less liquidity headroom.

Bottom line: This is a modestly better operating update than expected: Vistra beat the quarter’s EBITDA bar and converted the Cogentrix expansion into higher 2026 and 2027 financial targets. The story advances, but the benefit comes with a more leveraged, less liquid post-acquisition balance sheet to monitor.

What to watch next

Q4 results and 2027 outlook update, early 2027

Original filing on SEC EDGAR

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AllSight · BlackBerry Q2 FY27

Revenue $163.3M vs ~$144M expected; adjusted basic EPS $0.07 vs ~$0.04 consensus — a real upside surprise.Income statement
QNX revenue +27% to $80.3M; segment EBITDA $29.0M from $20.5M. “Record performance… core automotive.”Segment — QNX
Licensing jumped to $22.1M from $6.6M — it amplified the beat, but it's less recurring than QNX, so the quality sits in QNX.Segment — Licensing
FY27 guide lifted to $616–636M rev / $141–158M EBITDA, above the prior $594–621M / $119–139M framework.Guidance
QNX growth, margins, cash and a raised outlook all beat. But licensing amplified it and Secure Comms is flat — net retention 91% from 93%.Segment — Secure Comms

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Events/ANDE/8-K · Earnings

8-K · Item 2.02 · Earnings

The Andersons — a record Renewables quarter that beat profit expectations

Filed Aug 3, 2026ANDE · NASDAQ

AllSight readBeatPriced in▲ 1.8% since filed · reaction agrees

adj. EPS $2.15 vs ~$1.48 consensus

This filing tests whether The Andersons' sharp profit increase reflects broad operating improvement or a one-off renewable-fuels boost. It also separates strong adjusted earnings and cash generation from the quarter's legal and impairment charges.

The quarter was substantially stronger than both last year and the published earnings expectation. Adjusted EPS reached $2.15, versus $0.24 a year earlier and above the published consensus of about $1.48; reported EPS was $1.65. Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $140 million, while sales slipped modestly — the improvement came from margins and operating performance rather than higher revenue. Financial Highlights · Statements of Operations

Q2 ($M, exc. per-share)	Q2 2026	Q2 2025	YoY
Sales & merchandising revenue	3,097.7	3,135.9	−1%
Net income (attributable)	56.6	7.9	+48.7
Diluted EPS	1.65	0.23	+1.42
Adjusted EPS	2.15	0.24	+1.91
Adjusted EBITDA	140.3	65.2	+75.1
Agribusiness adj. pretax	20.3	16.8	+3.5
Renewables adj. pretax	88.4	9.6	+78.8
Cash from operations	487.9	299.3	+188.6
Cash from ops (pre-WC)	112.9	42.9	+70.1

Renewables drove nearly all of the upside — the operating backdrop was strong, but the result also benefited materially from tax credits. Renewables' adjusted pretax income rose to $88 million on record production, stronger ethanol margins and merchandising gains. It also received $24 million of 45Z producer tax credits, so this was not solely a repeatable plant-margin improvement; the company did cite healthy export and domestic ethanol demand as supportive. Renewables — Record Q2 · Segment Data

Agribusiness improved, but it was a supporting contributor rather than the main earnings engine. Adjusted pretax income increased to $20 million as fertilizer margins improved and merchandising benefited from commodity-price volatility, despite lower fertilizer volumes. Agribusiness — Improved Q2 · Segment Data

Cash generation improved and funding capacity is comfortable, while reported earnings still absorbed meaningful non-core costs. Operating cash flow was $488 million ($113 million before working-capital changes); capital spending was $76 million. Adjusted EPS excludes $0.50 of legal-settlement, impairment and transaction items, so the $2.15 adjusted result runs ahead of the $1.65 reported. Leverage stays below the <2.5× debt-to-EBITDA target; no new quantified full-year outlook was given. Cash & Liquidity · Adjusted Net Income

Community sentiment · 612 votes

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Vistra earnings beat as 2026 guidance rises, liquidity tightens

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