NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) · Nov 5, 2026 · Earnings
Miss — Adjusted EPS $1.23 vs published consensus ~$1.30
NMI Holdings earnings show a larger insured book, but rising defaults and claims pushed EPS below consensus despite strong book-value growth.
NMI is a private mortgage insurer building a larger low-down-payment mortgage portfolio while relying on disciplined underwriting and reinsurance to contain credit losses. Its recent story has been steady portfolio growth and high profitability; the Q2 release described record results, while the company’s annual filing emphasized a high-quality insured portfolio and risk-adjusted returns.
The quarter missed the earnings bar because claims deteriorated sharply. Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.23, below the published consensus of roughly $1.30, even though it edged up from $1.21 a year earlier. The main pressure was insurance claims and claim expenses, which jumped to $29.1 million from $13.1 million in Q2 and $18.6 million a year ago.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2025 | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted diluted EPS (Financial Highlights) | $1.23 | $1.38 | $1.21 | ~$1.30 |
| Net premiums earned (Financial Highlights) | $155.5M (+3%) | $157.5M | $151.3M | |
| Insurance claims and claim expenses (Financial Highlights) | $29.1M (+57%) | $13.1M | $18.6M | |
| Loss ratio (Financial Highlights) | 18.7% | 8.3% | 12.3% | |
| Primary insurance-in-force (Insurance Metrics) | $229.7B (+5%) | $227.1B | $218.4B | |
| Book value/share ex. unrealized gains (Financial Highlights) | $38.13 (+14%) | $36.88 | $33.32 |
The underlying book is still growing, but credit stress is moving the wrong way. Primary insurance-in-force rose 5% year over year to $229.7 billion, and net premiums earned increased 3%; however, new insurance written fell 15% sequentially, annual persistency declined to 80.8% from 83.9% a year ago, and the default rate increased to 1.23% from 1.05%. That combination says the franchise is expanding, but the newer earnings are being offset by worsening claims from the insured book.
Capital remains a cushion, not the quarter’s headline. Book value per share excluding unrealized investment gains rose 14% year over year to $38.13, while net investment income increased 20% to $32.2 million. Those gains helped absorb the claims increase, but they did not prevent quarterly adjusted net income from falling 2% year over year to $93.7 million.
Bottom line: NMI is still growing its insured portfolio and book value, but this quarter shifts attention from growth to claims performance. The earnings miss and sharp loss-ratio increase make the development modestly negative versus expectations, even though the longer-term franchise remains profitable and well-capitalized.
Q3 earnings call, November 5
A buy-side analyst on every ticker — it reads every public company's filing the instant it drops and decodes it into plain English.
A buy-side analyst on every ticker — the whole market decoded the second it moves, before it's a headline. Free gives you a taste. Pro takes the cap off and opens the full read on every company.
by Signing in NOW, claim your FREE 14-day Pro trial!