Sempra (SRE) · Nov 5, 2026 · Earnings
Beat — Adj. EPS $1.40 vs ~$1.22 consensus
Sempra earnings beat consensus and lifted 2026 GAAP guidance, while a California regulatory setback clouds the otherwise stronger utility-growth story.
Sempra is reshaping itself around regulated utility growth in Texas and California, funded partly by selling a 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners; its existing plan already called for roughly $65 billion of 2026–2030 capital deployment and 7%–9% long-term EPS growth.
The quarter beat the published earnings bar, despite softer revenue. Adjusted EPS reached $1.40 versus a published consensus near $1.22, while revenue was $3.191 billion versus roughly $3.31 billion expected. The quality of the beat is mixed rather than clean: Texas Utilities and Sempra Infrastructure improved sharply, but Sempra California earnings fell year over year and the company absorbed a $149 million after-tax regulatory-disallowance impact.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Consensus / prior guide |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS (Financial Highlights) | $1.40 (+26.1%) | $1.11 | ~$1.22 consensus |
| Revenue (Statements of Operations) | $3.191B (+1.3%) | $3.151B | ~$3.31B consensus |
| Sempra Texas earnings (Segment earnings) | $460M (+50.3%) | $306M | |
| Sempra California earnings (Segment earnings) | $223M (-39.7%) | $370M | |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guide (EPS Guidance) | $4.80–$5.30 | Reaffirmed | |
| 2026 GAAP EPS guide (EPS Guidance) | $7.41–$8.41 | $5.02–$5.55 prior guide |
The bigger change is the raised GAAP outlook, not the quarter alone. Sempra kept its adjusted 2026 EPS range at $4.80–$5.30 but lifted GAAP guidance to $7.41–$8.41, reflecting the expected gain from the Infrastructure Partners transaction and other items. The sale is still expected within two weeks, so the higher GAAP range is transaction-dependent rather than evidence that recurring utility earnings suddenly accelerated.
Texas is increasingly the engine of the story. Oncor's projected 2027–2031 base capital plan is about 20% above the prior plan, while quarterly peak demand rose 6% to 33.3 GW and large-load commitments in its footprint reached roughly 24 GW of base load plus 21 GW of studied load. 〔0〕 That supports the company's utility-growth thesis, but the filing describes pipeline and demand—not yet equivalent earnings already secured.
California is the offsetting constraint. The CPUC's October 29 proposed decision denied the utilities' request to correct the 2024 rate-case capital attrition mechanism; Sempra says an unsuccessful appeal would leave 2027 California earnings at the low end of guidance. 〔1〕 The company therefore has a stronger near-term print and a better Texas growth runway, but its California earnings path is less secure than the headline guidance increase suggests.
Bottom line: This is a modest earnings beat with a meaningful GAAP guidance lift, strengthened by Texas demand and capital opportunities. The improvement is real, but the recurring story remains partly dependent on closing the asset sale and managing a newly visible California regulatory drag.
SI Partners sale closing, expected within two weeks
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