NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) · Nov 5, 2026 · Earnings
Miss — Non-GAAP EPS $0.58 vs ~$0.73 published consensus
NorthWestern’s third-quarter earnings fell short as Colstrip ownership costs and higher expenses outweighed utility-margin growth. Guidance stayed intact.
NorthWestern is a regulated electric-and-gas utility trying to fund a large capital build, capture future data-center demand, and close its merger with Black Hills; the quarter shows the core utility engine holding up, but the newly enlarged Colstrip footprint is still absorbing earnings.
The quarter missed the market’s earnings bar. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.58 versus roughly $0.73 in published consensus, while revenue was $423.8 million versus approximately $428.2 million expected. The company reported GAAP diluted EPS of $0.50, down from $0.62 a year earlier, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.58, down from $0.79.
| Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Financial Results) | $423.8M | $387.0M | ~$428.2M |
| GAAP diluted EPS (Financial Results) | $0.50 | $0.62 | |
| Adjusted diluted EPS (Adjusted Non-GAAP Earnings) | $0.58 | $0.79 | ~$0.73 |
| Utility margin (Utility Margin) | $316.5M (+5.5%) | $300.0M | |
| Operating income (Financial Results) | $74.6M (-7.1%) | $80.3M |
Core utility demand and rate recovery were not the problem. Utility margin rose 5.5% year over year to $316.5 million, helped by Puget Colstrip margin, retail volumes, transmission revenue, and lower non-recoverable Montana supply costs. But that improvement was more than consumed by higher generation maintenance, depreciation, property taxes, interest expense, and the ongoing cost burden from Colstrip.
Colstrip remains the central earnings drag, not a one-quarter accounting wrinkle. The additional ownership interests created a $6.1 million net loss in the quarter; the Avista interests alone contributed a $0.05 EPS adjustment because power prices were insufficient to recover associated operating costs, while the combined Colstrip impact was a $0.10 GAAP EPS headwind versus the prior-year quarter. This was largely known before the filing, but the reported damage confirms that the promised cost recovery has not yet arrived. 〔0〕
Guidance was preserved, but it does not erase the weaker current earnings trend. NorthWestern reaffirmed standalone 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.68-$3.83 and its 4%-6% long-term EPS and rate-base growth targets. That is stabilizing relative to a potential cut, but the guide depends on normal weather, regulatory approval of cost recovery, and a standalone framework that will no longer apply after the Black Hills merger closes.
The merger is close but still has one material approval left. Nebraska, South Dakota, and FERC approvals are complete, while the Montana PSC’s final order is expected by November 12, 2026; management still targets year-end closing. This is mainly a timing update rather than a new strategic development, but it is the key event that can replace NorthWestern’s standalone earnings framework with the combined company’s outlook. 〔1〕
Bottom line: The underlying regulated utility business is growing, but the quarter still missed because Colstrip costs and higher financing and operating expenses are arriving before their recovery mechanisms. Reaffirmed guidance keeps the longer-term story intact, but this filing modestly weakens near-term execution against expectations.
Montana PSC merger order expected by November 12
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