Aemetis, Inc (AMTX) · Nov 5, 2026 · Earnings
Beat — Diluted EPS $(0.02) vs ~$0.20 loss consensus; revenue $88.2M vs roughly $74–77M consensus
Aemetis’ Q3 earnings beat expectations as 45Z tax credits drove revenue and EBITDA sharply higher, but financing needs and low cash remain central.
Aemetis is trying to turn its California dairy-RNG network and ethanol plant into a lower-carbon, higher-cash-flow platform, with 45Z credits and the Keyes mechanical vapor recompression project doing much of the economic heavy lifting. The prior-quarter story already included rising RNG output, new digesters and improving results, while the September credit sale showed that 45Z monetization had begun; this quarter shows the scale of the accounting and cash-flow benefit.
The quarter clearly beat the published bar. Q3 revenue of $88.2 million was well above the roughly $74–77 million consensus range, and diluted EPS of negative $0.02 was better than the expected loss of about $0.20. That makes this a genuine earnings beat, not merely a year-over-year recovery.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Consensus / prior period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Financial data) | $88.2M (+49%) | $59.2M | ~$74–77M consensus |
| Diluted EPS (Financial data) | $(0.02) | $(0.37) | ~$(0.20) consensus |
| Adjusted EBITDA (EBITDA Calculation) | $24.8M | $(5.0M) | |
| Section 45Z revenue (Financial highlights) | $24.7M | — | |
| Cash (Balance Sheet) | $3.4M | — | $4.9M at Dec. 31, 2025 |
| Current portion of long-term debt (Balance Sheet) | $316.4M | — | $279.1M at Dec. 31, 2025 |
The headline improvement is heavily credit-driven, but not entirely artificial. Aemetis booked $24.7 million of 45Z revenue, including an $11.0 million catch-up for the first half of 2026 after the government’s carbon-intensity model update. The recurring third-quarter RNG credit component was approximately $9.1 million, so the quarter’s reported profit overstates the run-rate improvement by including the catch-up; however, the underlying credit economics also improved materially, while ethanol volumes, pricing and RNG volumes all increased.
The operating turnaround is becoming visible, especially in California. Gross profit moved from essentially breakeven to $29.5 million, adjusted EBITDA swung from a $5.0 million loss to $24.8 million, and nine-month operating cash flow turned positive at $9.5 million. The ethanol segment also benefited from higher gallons and prices, while Dairy RNG sold 39% more MMBtu. That supports the business case for the digester buildout and MVR project, rather than leaving the quarter as a pure tax-credit accounting event.
Liquidity still limits how much this changes the overall story. Cash fell to $3.4 million despite the improved earnings profile and $22.4 million received from selling 45Z credits. Current liabilities were $439.8 million, including $316.4 million of current long-term debt, and stockholders’ deficit widened to $314.2 million. Management is still pursuing plant financing, digester financing and a possible India subsidiary IPO, so the stronger operating results have not removed the near-term refinancing problem. 〔0〕
Bottom line: Aemetis delivered a meaningful earnings beat and showed that 45Z credits can materially improve reported profitability and operating cash flow. The business is advancing, but the result does not yet resolve the company’s unusually tight liquidity and financing dependence.
Series A redemption deadline, December 31
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