Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) · Nov 5, 2026 · Earnings

Keel earnings beat revenue estimates, but no HPC lease signed

In line — Revenue $27.6M vs ~$22.9M consensus; EPS loss $0.10 vs ~$0.09 consensus

Keel’s Q3 earnings beat revenue expectations and Moses Lake construction began, but the HPC pivot still awaits its first signed lease.

Keel is still a development-stage HPC/AI infrastructure transition story, not yet a contracted data-center operator. It is building out Moses Lake, Sharon, and Panther Creek while pursuing three leases by year-end; the prior quarter described active negotiations at all three sites and roughly $819 million of liquidity to reach lease execution.

The quarter was broadly in line with a low bar, not a clean earnings win. Revenue of $27.6 million came in above the published consensus of about $22.9 million, but the $0.10 per-share loss was slightly worse than the roughly $0.09 consensus loss. Revenue also fell 59% year over year as Keel deliberately exited U.S. Bitcoin mining, so the beat says more about reduced expectations than improving operating scale.

Q3 2026Q3 2025Consensus
Revenue (Financial Highlights)$27.6M (-59%)$68.0M$22.9M
Loss/share (Financial Highlights)$(0.10)$(0.02)$(0.09)
Adjusted EBITDA (Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation)$(27.4M)$19.2M
G&A expense (Financial Highlights)$34.3M (+100%)$17.2M
Cash liquidity (Management commentary)$780M
Bitcoin sold (Management commentary)2,520

The business is progressing operationally, but the commercial milestone is still absent. Keel received the required permits and began construction at Moses Lake, while also engineering an option for next-generation Vera Rubin systems. That advances the physical build, but management still reported negotiations rather than a signed customer lease—the event the market needs to validate the pivot and unlock project financing. 〔0〕

Cash protection improved, while near-term earnings quality deteriorated. Selling the entire 2,261-Bitcoin treasury plus 259 newly mined coins for $192 million removes direct treasury exposure to Bitcoin prices and leaves Keel with approximately $780 million of liquidity. But adjusted EBITDA swung to a $27.4 million loss, G&A doubled as the company hired for project execution, and the reported $62 million continuing-operations loss included a $55 million non-cash capped-call fair-value loss.

Bottom line: Keel is executing the construction and funding side of the HPC pivot, but this filing does not yet prove customer conversion. The results are roughly in line overall; the first signed lease remains the decisive next validation.

What to watch next

First lease signing at Moses Lake, Sharon, or Panther Creek

Original filing on SEC EDGAR

Keel earnings beat revenue estimates, but no HPC lease signed | KEEL Stock News
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