Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) · Nov 5, 2026 · Earnings
In line — Revenue $27.6M vs ~$22.9M consensus; EPS loss $0.10 vs ~$0.09 consensus
Keel’s Q3 earnings beat revenue expectations and Moses Lake construction began, but the HPC pivot still awaits its first signed lease.
Keel is still a development-stage HPC/AI infrastructure transition story, not yet a contracted data-center operator. It is building out Moses Lake, Sharon, and Panther Creek while pursuing three leases by year-end; the prior quarter described active negotiations at all three sites and roughly $819 million of liquidity to reach lease execution.
The quarter was broadly in line with a low bar, not a clean earnings win. Revenue of $27.6 million came in above the published consensus of about $22.9 million, but the $0.10 per-share loss was slightly worse than the roughly $0.09 consensus loss. Revenue also fell 59% year over year as Keel deliberately exited U.S. Bitcoin mining, so the beat says more about reduced expectations than improving operating scale.
| Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Financial Highlights) | $27.6M (-59%) | $68.0M | $22.9M |
| Loss/share (Financial Highlights) | $(0.10) | $(0.02) | $(0.09) |
| Adjusted EBITDA (Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation) | $(27.4M) | $19.2M | |
| G&A expense (Financial Highlights) | $34.3M (+100%) | $17.2M | |
| Cash liquidity (Management commentary) | $780M | ||
| Bitcoin sold (Management commentary) | 2,520 |
The business is progressing operationally, but the commercial milestone is still absent. Keel received the required permits and began construction at Moses Lake, while also engineering an option for next-generation Vera Rubin systems. That advances the physical build, but management still reported negotiations rather than a signed customer lease—the event the market needs to validate the pivot and unlock project financing. 〔0〕
Cash protection improved, while near-term earnings quality deteriorated. Selling the entire 2,261-Bitcoin treasury plus 259 newly mined coins for $192 million removes direct treasury exposure to Bitcoin prices and leaves Keel with approximately $780 million of liquidity. But adjusted EBITDA swung to a $27.4 million loss, G&A doubled as the company hired for project execution, and the reported $62 million continuing-operations loss included a $55 million non-cash capped-call fair-value loss.
Bottom line: Keel is executing the construction and funding side of the HPC pivot, but this filing does not yet prove customer conversion. The results are roughly in line overall; the first signed lease remains the decisive next validation.
First lease signing at Moses Lake, Sharon, or Panther Creek
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