Lincoln National Corp (LNC) · Nov 5, 2026 · Earnings
Miss — Adjusted EPS $1.72 vs ~$1.96 consensus; $2.20 excluding assumption review
Lincoln National’s third-quarter earnings show stronger underlying profit and capital flexibility, but reported EPS missed as disability claims and annuity outflows pressured results.
Lincoln is trying to shift toward a more diversified, less capital-intensive insurer: spread-based annuities and life insurance are carrying more of the earnings mix while the Talcott reinsurance transaction reduces balance-sheet risk. Against that backdrop, this was a mixed quarter with a real underlying improvement—but not a clean earnings beat.
The reported earnings miss is partly a one-time distortion, but still the headline result. Adjusted operating income available to common stockholders was $339 million, or $1.72 per diluted share, versus a published consensus of roughly $1.96; excluding the $0.48-per-share annual assumption-review hit, the figure was $2.20. The filing explicitly says third-quarter adjusted operating income was $339 million, or $1.72 per share, including the $0.48 unfavorable assumption-review impact.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted operating EPS (Financial Highlights) | $1.72 | $2.04 | ~$1.96 |
| Adjusted EPS excluding assumption review (Financial Highlights) | $2.20 | $2.04 | ~$1.96 |
| Net income (Income Statement) | $1,399M | $445M | |
| Adjusted operating income (Income Statement) | $373M | $431M | |
| Annuities operating income (Segment results — Annuities) | $304M | $318M | |
| Life Insurance operating income (Segment results — Life Insurance) | $130M | $54M | |
| Group Protection operating income (Segment results — Group Protection) | $77M | $110M | |
| Retirement Plan Services operating income (Segment results — Retirement Plan Services) | $55M | $46M |
Life Insurance and Retirement Plan Services showed the business model working better. Life Insurance earnings rose to $130 million from $54 million, helped by higher alternative investment income, improved mortality and captive consolidation; underlying earnings excluding alternatives grew 38%. Retirement Plan Services earnings increased 20% to $55 million.
Annuities are improving in mix, but not yet in retention. Sales rose 21% sequentially to $4.3 billion, with fixed annuity sales more than doubling and spread-based products representing 67% of sales. That supports Lincoln’s goal of building steadier spread income. But annuity net outflows widened to roughly $2.7 billion from $1.1 billion a year earlier, and operating income fell 4% year over year to $304 million.
Group Protection is the clearest operational setback. Premiums grew 3%, but earnings dropped to $77 million and the operating margin fell to 5.5% from 8.1% excluding the prior-year assumption-review benefit. Disability claim severity rose while favorable incidence trends continued to normalize, showing that the segment’s earnings recovery remains vulnerable to claims experience.
Capital flexibility materially improved, although the shareholder-return signal is still early. Lincoln retired $437 million of preferred stock, resumed $50 million of common-stock repurchases, lifted holding-company liquidity net of prefunding to about $1.0 billion and held leverage at 25%. Those actions strengthen the balance-sheet story, but they do not offset the weaker claims experience and persistent annuity outflows in the quarter.
Bottom line: The underlying earnings engine was better than the reported EPS suggests, especially in Life Insurance and Retirement Plan Services. But the official result missed consensus, and the deterioration in Group Protection plus heavier annuity outflows leaves the broader turnaround story mixed rather than decisively advanced.
Fourth-quarter results reflect Talcott transaction and revised earnings definition
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