CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) · Nov 4, 2026 · Earnings

CF Industries earnings beat revenue estimates, but EPS misses

Miss — diluted EPS $2.87 vs ~$3.12 consensus

CF Industries earnings show stronger pricing, volume and cash generation, but Q3 EPS missed consensus despite a revenue beat.

CF Industries is a low-cost North American nitrogen producer using its operating advantage to fund shareholder returns and a long-term shift into low-carbon ammonia. The immediate strategic backdrop was already constructive: Blue Point One had broken ground, with production targeted for 2029, while Yazoo City was expected to return in the first half of 2027.

The quarter was operationally strong, but the headline earnings result missed the market’s bar. Revenue beat the published consensus of roughly $1.76 billion, and adjusted EBITDA rose sharply year over year, helped by pricing, volume and lower realized gas costs. But diluted EPS of $2.87 came in below consensus near $3.12, making this an earnings miss even though the underlying operating trend improved. The filing describes Q3 adjusted EBITDA as favorable due to “strong volume, pricing and lower realized gas cost.” 〔0〕

	Q3 2026	Q3 2025	Consensus
Net sales (Financial results)	$1,860M (+12.1%)	$1,659M	$1,760M
Diluted EPS (Financial results)	$2.87 (+31.1%)	$2.19	$3.12
Adjusted EBITDA (Financial results)	$833M (+24.9%)	$667M
Gross margin (Financial results)	38.7%	38.1%
Capital expenditures (Financial results)	$282M	$347M

Cash generation remains a meaningful strength, though reported conversion is temporarily depressed by a tax deposit. Q3 2026 LTM free cash flow was $2.025 billion and conversion was 53%, but excluding the $306 million Canada-U.S. transfer-pricing deposit, conversion was 61%—roughly consistent with CF’s stated long-run average. That supports continued funding for Blue Point and shareholder returns rather than signaling a deterioration in the core cash engine. The filing says the deposit “will be applied against the tax and interest ultimately due upon resolution through bilateral government procedures.”

The strategic buildout is progressing, but this filing adds execution confirmation more than a new valuation-changing milestone. Blue Point construction has commenced, its total project cost remains approximately $3.7 billion, and ammonia production is still expected in 2029; CF also reiterated roughly $950 million of 2026 company-funded capital expenditures and a Yazoo City restart in the first half of 2027. Those points advance the existing story, but they were largely established before this release, so the fresh information is mainly that CF is executing well while nitrogen pricing and supply conditions remain supportive.

The main tension is that stronger operating profit did not translate into a consensus-level per-share result. Interest expense was $76 million versus $18 million a year earlier, while the share count fell materially; the filing does not provide a direct explanation for the gap versus consensus, so the cleanest conclusion is simply that the quarter beat on revenue and operating earnings but missed on EPS.

Bottom line: CF’s operating engine and cash generation are tracking well, and the Blue Point build remains on schedule. But versus expectations, this is still a modest miss because the stronger business performance did not clear the EPS bar. Có

What to watch next

November 5 earnings conference call

Original filing on SEC EDGAR

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AllSight · BlackBerry Q2 FY27

Revenue $163.3M vs ~$144M expected; adjusted basic EPS $0.07 vs ~$0.04 consensus — a real upside surprise.Income statement
QNX revenue +27% to $80.3M; segment EBITDA $29.0M from $20.5M. “Record performance… core automotive.”Segment — QNX
Licensing jumped to $22.1M from $6.6M — it amplified the beat, but it's less recurring than QNX, so the quality sits in QNX.Segment — Licensing
FY27 guide lifted to $616–636M rev / $141–158M EBITDA, above the prior $594–621M / $119–139M framework.Guidance
QNX growth, margins, cash and a raised outlook all beat. But licensing amplified it and Secure Comms is flat — net retention 91% from 93%.Segment — Secure Comms

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Events/ANDE/8-K · Earnings

8-K · Item 2.02 · Earnings

The Andersons — a record Renewables quarter that beat profit expectations

Filed Aug 3, 2026ANDE · NASDAQ

AllSight readBeatPriced in▲ 1.8% since filed · reaction agrees

adj. EPS $2.15 vs ~$1.48 consensus

This filing tests whether The Andersons' sharp profit increase reflects broad operating improvement or a one-off renewable-fuels boost. It also separates strong adjusted earnings and cash generation from the quarter's legal and impairment charges.

The quarter was substantially stronger than both last year and the published earnings expectation. Adjusted EPS reached $2.15, versus $0.24 a year earlier and above the published consensus of about $1.48; reported EPS was $1.65. Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $140 million, while sales slipped modestly — the improvement came from margins and operating performance rather than higher revenue. Financial Highlights · Statements of Operations

Q2 ($M, exc. per-share)	Q2 2026	Q2 2025	YoY
Sales & merchandising revenue	3,097.7	3,135.9	−1%
Net income (attributable)	56.6	7.9	+48.7
Diluted EPS	1.65	0.23	+1.42
Adjusted EPS	2.15	0.24	+1.91
Adjusted EBITDA	140.3	65.2	+75.1
Agribusiness adj. pretax	20.3	16.8	+3.5
Renewables adj. pretax	88.4	9.6	+78.8
Cash from operations	487.9	299.3	+188.6
Cash from ops (pre-WC)	112.9	42.9	+70.1

Renewables drove nearly all of the upside — the operating backdrop was strong, but the result also benefited materially from tax credits. Renewables' adjusted pretax income rose to $88 million on record production, stronger ethanol margins and merchandising gains. It also received $24 million of 45Z producer tax credits, so this was not solely a repeatable plant-margin improvement; the company did cite healthy export and domestic ethanol demand as supportive. Renewables — Record Q2 · Segment Data

Agribusiness improved, but it was a supporting contributor rather than the main earnings engine. Adjusted pretax income increased to $20 million as fertilizer margins improved and merchandising benefited from commodity-price volatility, despite lower fertilizer volumes. Agribusiness — Improved Q2 · Segment Data

Cash generation improved and funding capacity is comfortable, while reported earnings still absorbed meaningful non-core costs. Operating cash flow was $488 million ($113 million before working-capital changes); capital spending was $76 million. Adjusted EPS excludes $0.50 of legal-settlement, impairment and transaction items, so the $2.15 adjusted result runs ahead of the $1.65 reported. Leverage stays below the <2.5× debt-to-EBITDA target; no new quantified full-year outlook was given. Cash & Liquidity · Adjusted Net Income

Community sentiment · 612 votes

58% bullish

Bull 58%Neu 27%Bear 15%

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CF Industries earnings beat revenue estimates, but EPS misses

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