Murphy Oil Corp (MUR) · Nov 4, 2026 · Earnings
Beat — Adjusted EPS $1.08 vs ~$0.91 consensus
Murphy Oil’s third-quarter earnings beat consensus as production exceeded guidance and full-year output was raised, though heavier spending compressed free cash flow.
Murphy Oil is an independent exploration-and-production company balancing U.S. onshore growth in the Eagle Ford and Canadian gas development at Tupper Montney with offshore production and exploration. Its prior full-year 2026 production target was 167,000–175,000 BOEPD, while third-quarter guidance was 171,000–179,000 BOEPD.
The quarter was clearly ahead of the operating bar. Murphy produced 186,500 BOEPD, roughly 6.6% above the midpoint of its 171,000–179,000 BOEPD quarterly target, with the company citing Eagle Ford activity, stronger new wells, lower Tupper Montney royalties and limited storm downtime. 〔0〕
The financial result also beat published expectations. Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.08 versus a published consensus of roughly $0.91, while adjusted EBITDA rose to $510.9 million from $390.6 million a year earlier. The earnings improvement was supported by higher realized oil prices and materially lower lease operating costs, although exploration expense and corporate costs remained elevated.
| Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Consensus / prior guide | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted diluted EPS (Adjusted net income) | $1.08 (Adjusted net income) | $0.41 | ~$0.91 consensus |
| Total production, net | 186,495 BOEPD (Financial Highlights) | — | 171,000–179,000 BOEPD guide |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $510.9M (Adjusted EBITDA) | $390.6M | — |
| Free cash flow | $48.2M (Free Cash Flow) | $218.8M | — |
| Adjusted free cash flow | $(8.4)M (Free Cash Flow) | $124.4M | — |
| FY 2026 production guidance | 176,000–178,000 BOEPD (Production Guidance) | 167,000–175,000 BOEPD prior guide | — |
The biggest change is the raised production outlook. Full-year guidance moved to 176,000–178,000 BOEPD, lifting the midpoint by 6,000 BOEPD from the previous range. 〔1〕 That is more than routine confirmation: it says recent well performance and asset execution are running ahead of the plan established just one quarter ago.
Cash conversion is the main qualification. Free cash flow fell to $48.2 million from $218.8 million despite stronger operating cash flow, because capital spending rose to $422.2 million from $186.9 million. After dividends and other adjustments, adjusted free cash flow was negative $8.4 million. The company is therefore growing production through a much heavier investment cycle rather than producing a clean cash-flow acceleration.
The balance sheet remains workable but is not getting lighter. Murphy ended the quarter with approximately $2.50 billion of liquidity, but total debt reached $1.63 billion, about $80 million above the prior quarter, largely because of the newly recognized Lac Da Vang FSO finance lease.
Bottom line: This was a meaningful execution beat: production exceeded guidance, earnings cleared consensus and the full-year output target moved higher. The offset is that the growth is capital-intensive, leaving free cash flow much weaker than the headline earnings improvement suggests.
Third-quarter earnings call, November 5, 2026
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