agilon health, inc. (AGL) · Nov 4, 2026 · Earnings

agilon health earnings beat as 2026 EBITDA guidance nearly doubles

Beat — Diluted EPS $1.97 vs ~$1.23 consensus; revenue $1.52B vs ~$1.46B

agilon health earnings beat Q3 expectations, with sharply better medical costs driving a major increase in full-year EBITDA guidance despite fewer members.

agilon is a value-based-care platform helping community physicians manage Medicare patients, now prioritizing profitable contracting after market exits rather than chasing membership growth. That strategy was already visible after its second-quarter results, when management cited profitability-focused contracting and raised its 2026 outlook.

The quarter materially beat the bar. Q3 revenue reached $1.52 billion, ahead of the published consensus of roughly $1.46 billion, while diluted EPS was $1.97 versus an expected loss of about $1.23. The revenue beat is notable because the business had fewer members; the filing attributes the upside to burden-of-illness performance, payer contracting, and improved pricing. "Total revenue of $1.52billion in the third quarter 2026 increased 6% compared to $1.44billion in the third quarter 2025."

The operating turnaround is becoming more credible. The medical services expense ratio fell to 88.5% from 104.0%, producing $64 million of adjusted EBITDA versus a $91 million loss a year earlier. That is the core improvement in the business—not merely an accounting rebound—and it follows the same direction seen in Q2. Still, part of the improvement reflects favorable claims and burden-of-illness performance, so durability remains the key test rather than the quarter alone.

Management raised the full-year outlook substantially, especially for profitability. Revenue guidance moved to $5.87-$5.89 billion from $5.775-$5.86 billion, while adjusted EBITDA guidance jumped to $145-$155 million from $75-$95 million. The company also raised its expected year-end Medicare Advantage membership and ACO membership ranges, but the earnings upgrade is much larger than the membership change: this is chiefly a margin and execution story, not a growth story.

The trade-off is a smaller platform. Total members live on the platform fell 8% year over year to 566,000, including a 10% decline in Medicare Advantage members. "Year-over-year changes to membership primarily reflect a disciplined approach to contracting focused on profitability, previously disclosed market exits, and a measured approach to growth." 〔0〕 The filing therefore strengthens the case that agilon can improve economics by exiting unattractive business, but it does not yet show that the company has returned to durable membership expansion.

The balance sheet adds room to execute. Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaled $312 million against $32 million of debt, while nine-month operating cash flow turned positive at $16 million versus an $85 million use in the prior-year period. That reduces the immediate pressure to fund the turnaround externally, although receivables and current liabilities also rose materially during the period.

Bottom line: This was a clear earnings beat and a major upgrade to the 2026 profit outlook, strengthening agilon’s turnaround story. The improvement is meaningful, but it is being delivered through better economics on a smaller membership base, so the next test is whether margins hold while growth resumes.

What to watch next

Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook

Original filing on SEC EDGAR