Mgic Investment Corp (MTG) · Nov 4, 2026 · Earnings
Beat — Diluted EPS $0.85 vs ~$0.81 consensus
MGIC Investment earnings beat Q3 EPS expectations, while rising delinquencies, loss costs and weaker persistency temper the result.
MGIC is a private mortgage insurer growing its insured mortgage portfolio while managing rising credit stress in the U.S. housing book. Its business is heavily tied to low-down-payment loans and the GSE mortgage market, with persistency and delinquencies driving the earnings profile.
The quarter beat the earnings bar, but not cleanly. Diluted EPS was $0.85 versus published consensus of roughly $0.81, while revenue of $299.1 million was essentially in line with the roughly $298.7 million expectation. The EPS beat was helped by a sharply lower share count, not by stronger underlying profit: adjusted operating income fell to $174.7 million from $190.8 million a year earlier.
| Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diluted EPS (Income Statement) | $0.85 | $0.83 | ~$0.81 |
| Adjusted operating EPS (Operating income reconciliation) | $0.85 | $0.83 | |
| Total revenues (Income Statement) | $299.1M | $304.5M | ~$298.7M |
| Net losses incurred (Income Statement) | $23.9M | $10.9M | |
| Loss ratio (Summary Financial Metrics) | 10.0% | 4.5% | |
| Primary IIF delinquency rate (Summary Financial Metrics) | 2.52% | 2.32% |
Credit trends are the main drag on the result. Primary delinquency inventory rose to 27,814 loans from 25,747 a year earlier, and the loss ratio more than doubled to 10.0%. Current-quarter losses were $58 million before $34 million of favorable prior-period development, leaving net losses incurred at $23.9 million. That is still manageable for a well-capitalized insurer, but it shows the book is becoming more expensive to run. 〔0〕
The portfolio is still expanding, but the earnings engine is softening. Insurance in force grew to $307.3 billion from $300.8 billion, and year-to-date new insurance written reached $49.3 billion versus $43.1 billion. However, annual persistency fell to 82.5% from 85.0%, while net premium yield declined to 31.2 basis points from 32.3 basis points. That combination means MGIC is adding volume, but retaining less premium and earning less on each dollar of insurance in force.
The reinsurance amendment is a modest offset. MGIC said the quota-share cede rate will fall from 25% to 23.98% effective December 31, 2026, allowing it to retain slightly more premium and risk. 〔1〕 The change is helpful, but it is too small to outweigh the quarter's deterioration in delinquencies and loss costs.
Capital remains a strength rather than a new catalyst. PMIERs excess increased to $2.8 billion from $2.5 billion a year earlier, while the risk-to-capital ratio remained 9.6:1. That gives MGIC room to absorb higher claims and continue writing business, but it does not change the underlying direction of the quarter.
Bottom line: MGIC beat a modest EPS expectation, but the quality of the beat was mixed because credit costs rose and persistency weakened. The business is still growing and well-capitalized, yet this filing adds evidence of gradual underwriting pressure rather than a cleaner acceleration in earnings.
Q3 earnings call, November 5, 2026
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