Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) · Nov 4, 2026 · Earnings
Miss — diluted EPS $0.93 vs ~$1.51 consensus
Warrior Met Coal’s third-quarter earnings show Blue Creek scaling fast and funding a special dividend, but EPS missed consensus despite stronger cash flow.
Warrior is transitioning from Blue Creek construction to harvesting its production and cash-flow benefits; second-quarter results had already raised 2026 volume guidance as customer adoption improved. The operating ramp is working, but the quarter missed the earnings bar. Sales volumes rose 48% and production 36% year over year as Blue Creek contributed, while revenue slightly exceeded the published consensus of roughly $504 million. But diluted EPS of $0.93 came in well below the approximately $1.51 consensus, making this an earnings miss even though the underlying operating picture improved.
| Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Financial and Operating Results) | $507.9M (+54.6%) | $328.6M | ~$503.6M |
| Diluted EPS (Statements of Operations) | $0.93 (+32.9%) | $0.70 | ~$1.51 |
| Adjusted EBITDA (Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation) | $124.0M (+75.6%) | $70.6M | |
| Free cash flow (Free Cash Flow reconciliation) | $138.9M | $(19.5)M | |
| Cash cost per ton (Quarterly Supplemental Financial Data) | $104.98 (+4.2%) | $100.73 |
Blue Creek is translating into cash faster than the headline EPS suggests. Adjusted EBITDA increased 76% to $124.0 million, operating cash flow reached $166.0 million, and free cash flow swung to $138.9 million from a $19.5 million outflow a year earlier. That cash generation supports the recently announced $2.00-per-share special dividend, but the dividend was already disclosed on October 27, so it is confirmation rather than a fresh surprise.
Margins are not improving uniformly. Average net selling price increased 6%, but cash cost per ton rose 4% to $104.98, while gross selling-price realization fell to approximately 66% from 83% because of a heavier High-Vol A mix, freight pressure and port delays. That means Blue Creek is expanding volume and lowering structural costs, but the quarter still carried mix, logistics and inflationary drag. 〔0〕
The outlook was steady, not upgraded. Warrior reaffirmed the full-year 2026 guidance established last quarter, including 13.0–14.0 million tons of sales, 12.5–13.5 million tons of production and $95–$105 per-ton cash costs. With one longwall move remaining in the fourth quarter, the next proof point is whether Blue Creek can maintain its volume contribution without the current freight, product-mix and cost pressures widening. 〔1〕
Bottom line: Blue Creek is clearly advancing Warrior’s cash-generation story, but this quarter did not meet the earnings expectation and offered no new upward guidance. The result is operationally encouraging but, relative to the market’s bar, a modestly negative earnings read.
Q4 report, early February 2027
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