Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) · Nov 4, 2026 · Earnings
Beat — Adjusted EPS $0.71 vs ~$0.58 consensus; revenue $513.9M vs ~$473.2M
Magnolia’s Q3 earnings beat consensus on adjusted EPS and revenue as WildFire lifted production, cash flow and oil exposure, while debt and share count rose.
Magnolia is transitioning from a largely organic South Texas producer into a much larger, more oil-weighted Giddings operator after closing the WildFire acquisition. This quarter is the first partial look at the combined business; the full run-rate arrives in Q4, with production already expected to reach 159–161 Mboe/d and 49%–50% oil.
The operating result beat the market’s benchmark. Adjusted EPS of $0.71 exceeded the published consensus of roughly $0.58, while revenue reached $513.9 million versus roughly $473 million expected. The underlying business expanded quickly: production rose 17% year over year to 117.3 Mboe/d, oil volumes rose 24% to 49.1 Mbbls/d, and adjusted EBITDAX increased 79% to $392.0 million.
| Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Financial Highlights) | $513.9M (+58%) | $324.9M | ~$473.2M |
| Adjusted EPS (Adjusted EPS reconciliation) | $0.71 | — | ~$0.58 |
| Production (Operating Highlights) | 117.3 Mboe/d (+17%) | 100.5 Mboe/d | — |
| Adjusted EBITDAX (Adjusted EBITDAX) | $392.0M (+79%) | $218.8M | — |
| Adjusted free cash flow (Free Cash Flow) | $223.7M (+67%) | $133.9M | — |
| Net debt (Net Debt reconciliation) | $1.918B | $0.133B | — |
WildFire is showing the intended economics, but the accounting is noisy. GAAP diluted EPS fell to $0.35 from $0.40 because the quarter included $68.7 million of transaction and integration costs and $39.9 million of unrealized derivative losses. Excluding those items, adjusted net income more than doubled to $166.3 million, and adjusted operating margin reached 43% despite the acquisition-related burden.
Cash generation is the strongest part of the update. Magnolia produced $223.7 million of adjusted free cash flow and returned $103.3 million through dividends and repurchases, while drilling and completion spending of $147.4 million stayed below earlier guidance. That supports the claim that the enlarged asset base can fund development and shareholder returns, rather than requiring a permanently higher reinvestment rate.
The trade-off is a much heavier balance sheet and a larger equity base. Net debt ended at approximately $1.9 billion versus $133 million at year-end 2025, cash fell to $17.5 million, and diluted weighted-average shares rose 21% year over year. The acquisition is therefore delivering the expected scale and cash flow, but the benefit still has to outrun the financing burden and dilution; the company’s repeated leverage and synergy targets were already broadly known before this release.
Bottom line: The first partial quarter says WildFire is working operationally and the combined company is generating more cash than expected. It is a modestly positive earnings update, not a full rewrite of the story, because the acquisition’s leverage, dilution and integration costs remain part of the equation.
Q3 earnings call, November 5
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