Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL) · Nov 3, 2026 · Earnings
Beat — Diluted EPS $0.25 vs ~$0.17 consensus; revenue $363.6M vs ~$358.4M
Accel Entertainment’s Q3 earnings beat expectations, with double-digit growth and Chicago licenses now in hand—but free cash flow benefited from a tax refund.
Accel is a growing distributed-gaming operator using its Illinois base to expand in Nevada, Nebraska, Louisiana, Georgia, Fairmount Park and now Chicago; the Chicago opportunity was already expected to begin generating revenue in late 2026, so the key question was execution and pace rather than whether the market existed.
The quarter beat the market’s modest bar. Revenue reached $363.6 million, ahead of published consensus around $358.4 million, while diluted EPS of $0.25 exceeded consensus near $0.17. Accel also delivered adjusted EPS of $0.22, above the roughly $0.18 normalized estimate, making this a genuine earnings beat rather than a purely accounting-driven GAAP result. The release said, “Third-quarter revenue increased 10% year-over-year a third-quarter record $364million, while third-quarter net income rose 55% year-over-year.”
| Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Financial Highlights) | $363.6M (+10.3%) | $329.7M | $358.4M |
| Diluted EPS (Income Statement) | $0.25 (+56.3%) | $0.16 | $0.17 |
| Adjusted EPS (Adjusted net income) | $0.22 (+15.8%) | $0.19 | ~$0.18 |
| Adjusted EBITDA (Financial Highlights) | $57.5M (+12.3%) | $51.2M | |
| Free cash flow (Free cash flow) | $62.0M (+79.7%) | $34.5M |
The underlying operating story improved, not just the headline EPS. Net gaming revenue grew 11.3%, total locations increased 5.7% to 4,705, and machines rose 6.6% to 29,548. Illinois hold-per-day increased 9.2%, while Nebraska, Louisiana and Georgia posted particularly strong location-level growth. The company said, “Adjusted EBITDA rose 12% to $57million, a third quarter record.”
The cash-flow surge is less repeatable than the earnings beat. Q3 free cash flow conversion reached 107.8%, but that included a refund tied to the $18 million of federal tax credits purchased in the prior quarter. The filing states, “We received the related refund in Q3 on the $18million in federal tax credits that we purchased in Q2 ’26 for $17million.” That makes the quarter’s cash generation unusually strong, even though operating cash flow and capital spending discipline were both better than a year earlier.
Chicago has moved from planning into initial execution, but it is not yet a material earnings driver. Accel reported that the rollout had begun after receiving its first licenses, which is an important milestone against the company’s existing expansion plan. The release said, “the rollout has now begun with the receipt of our first licenses.” 〔0〕 The development is partly known rather than a surprise, but it lowers one implementation risk and gives the next phase of the growth story a tangible starting point.
The balance sheet supports continued expansion without a visible funding problem. Net debt declined to approximately $272 million from $305 million a year earlier, while the company repurchased about $7.2 million of stock during the quarter. Accel said, “We ended the quarter with $294million of cash and cash equivalents and net debt of approximately $272million.”
Bottom line: This was a real beat with broad operating growth and a meaningful Chicago execution milestone. The only qualification is that the cash-flow headline was helped by a one-time tax refund, so the business improved more clearly than the quarter’s peak free-cash-flow figure suggests.
Chicago VGT deployment ramp and Q4 2026 results
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