The filing is not a new operating update, but it exposes a stale internal model. The forecast was prepared in Q4 2025 and dated December 2, 2025, so it is not current guidance or a fresh quarter result (Forecast cover). No reliable published consensus or prior market forecast is provided here; the cleanest benchmark is therefore the company’s own disclosed trajectory, with a heavy discount for the model’s age and confidentiality disclaimer.
| Allocated BSS / HSSC forecast ($M, unless noted) | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 1,422 | 1,352 | 1,425 | 1,487 | 1,629 | 1,822 |
| Consumer revenue | 787 | 609 | 450 | 314 | 223 | 158 |
| Enterprise/other revenue | 635 | 743 | 975 | 1,173 | 1,406 | 1,663 |
| OIBDA | 145 | 148 | 112 | 109 | 102 | 124 |
| OIBDA margin | 10.2% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% |
| Free cash flow | (147) | (22) | (113) | (84) | (97) | (78) |
| North America ending retail subscribers (000s) | 547 | 398 | 298 | 207 | 144 | 100 |
(Financials; Allocated BSS Financials; NA Consumer Summary; Cash flow section)
The core consumer business is modeled as a near-terminal decline. North American retail subscribers fall from 547,000 in 2025 to 100,000 in 2030, while consumer revenue drops from $787 million to $158 million; gross additions reach zero by 2028 (NA Consumer Summary; Allocated BSS Financials). The model assumes enterprise growth replaces much of that lost revenue, but not with equivalent economics: total service gross margin falls from 40.6% to 17.5%, and overall OIBDA margin contracts from 10.2% to 6.8% despite revenue recovering and growing after 2026 (Financials; Service Cost; OIBDA).
The enterprise pivot is substantial, but it is heavily assumption-dependent. Enterprise and other revenue rises from $635 million in 2025 to $1.66 billion in 2030, led by Aero, managed services, international enterprise, government and factory activity (Allocated BSS Financials; Aero Summary; Managed Services; Government Summary; Factory Summary). Aero is the standout modeled growth engine, increasing from $151 million to $589 million of revenue and from $4 million to $148 million of OIBDA over the period (Aero Summary). Because much of the later growth comes from incremental market capture and projected new business rather than only identified backlog, the disclosure supports a strategic pivot more than it proves execution.
Cash generation remains the main weakness. Even after capex declines from $142 million in 2025 to roughly $50 million annually later in the forecast, free cash flow remains negative in every year shown, including $(22) million in 2026 and $(78) million in 2030 (Cash flow section). The burden is driven by $89 million of interest payments in 2025-2026, rising to $135 million annually from 2027, plus other recurring cash outflows (Cash flow section). Net read: the filing is strategically mixed—enterprise assets are modeled to scale and offset consumer erosion—but financially negative, because the disclosed path still does not produce positive free cash flow and is based on a forecast already more than eight months old at filing.
Read the original 8-K on SEC EDGAR ↗