Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC) · Nov 3, 2026 · Earnings
Miss — Class A diluted EPS $(0.32) vs ~$0.26 loss consensus
Ramaco’s third-quarter earnings beat revenue expectations, but EPS missed as costs rose and 2026 production and cash-cost guidance weakened.
Ramaco is still a metallurgical-coal producer using its operating cash base to fund an exploration-stage Wyoming rare-earth and critical-minerals platform; the Brook project remains in development rather than commercial production. The quarter therefore matters mainly through coal execution, costs, and whether the balance sheet can keep funding that second platform.
The headline earnings result was a miss despite a revenue beat. Revenue reached $150.1 million versus a published consensus of roughly $140.23 million, but Class A diluted EPS was a $0.32 loss versus an expected $0.26 loss; the company also produced only $3.0 million of adjusted EBITDA versus $8.4 million a year earlier. The market had been expecting a loss, but not one this deep. The filing reported, “The Company had a quarterly net loss of $(18.2) million and Class A diluted EPS of $(0.32).” 〔0〕
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Consensus / prior guide |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Financial Statements) | $150.1M | $121.0M | ~$140.23M |
| Class A diluted EPS (Income Statement) | $(0.32) | $(0.25) | ~$(0.26) |
| Adjusted EBITDA (Reconciliation) | $3.0M | $8.4M | |
| Cash margin per ton (Per Ton Financial Metrics) | $16 | $23 | |
| 2026 production guidance (Financial Guidance) | 3.5–3.6M tons | 3.826M tons | 3.6–3.9M tons prior |
| 2026 cash-cost guidance (Financial Guidance) | $101–103/ton | $98/ton | $96–99/ton prior |
| 2026 capex guidance (Financial Guidance) | $97–102M | $64.3M | $92–97M prior |
The underlying coal economics weakened rather than merely looking noisy. Sales rose 23% year over year because Ramaco worked down inventory, but production fell 10%, cash costs rose to $104 per ton from $97, and cash margin fell 30% to $16 per ton. The filing attributes the cost pressure largely to diesel, while the revenue benefit came partly from selling stockpiled coal rather than from stronger realized pricing.
Management lowered the 2026 operating bar. Production guidance moved to 3.5–3.6 million tons from 3.6–3.9 million, sales guidance narrowed to 4.0–4.1 million tons from 4.0–4.3 million, cash-cost guidance rose to $101–103 per ton from $96–99, and capex increased to $97–102 million from $92–97 million. The company says the capex increase reflects accelerating the Maben underground section, but the net message is that near-term execution is more expensive and lower-volume than previously expected. 〔1〕
The balance sheet and 2027 setup keep this from being a major setback. Liquidity was $374.7 million with no revolver borrowings, and Ramaco has already signed 1.7 million tons of 2027 domestic business at $139 per ton plus 1.1 million export tons. That provides better forward visibility and supports the critical-minerals buildout, but it does not offset the immediate margin compression and guidance cuts.
The rare-earth story advanced, but mostly through milestones rather than cash generation. Recovery tests were strong and the pilot plant, technical report, and pre-feasibility study now have defined 2027 milestones, yet the project remains pre-commercial and still depends on further testing, engineering, financing, and resource validation. The filing’s $30 million Chubb jury verdict is a potential liquidity benefit, but the final award remains subject to post-trial motions and fee determination.
Bottom line: This was a mixed quarter leaning negative: revenue and the 2027 contract position were encouraging, but the earnings miss, margin deterioration, and higher-cost/lower-production 2026 outlook weaken the near-term operating story. The balance sheet prevents it from becoming a broader reversal of the company’s longer-term plan.
2027 guidance after the early-December board meeting
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