Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) · Nov 3, 2026 · Earnings
Beat — Adjusted EPS $1.77 vs ~$1.57 consensus
ADM’s third-quarter earnings beat expectations as crushing and ethanol margins surged, while the company raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance.
ADM is in the middle of a profit recovery led by North American soybean crushing, ethanol and biodiesel, after policy clarity improved the biofuels margin environment; its Nutrition business is recovering more slowly. The second-quarter outlook had already assumed stronger crushing and ethanol earnings, so this quarter tests whether that improvement is becoming durable.
The quarter beat the market’s profit bar, not just the prior year. Adjusted EPS of $1.77 was above the published consensus of roughly $1.57, while revenue of $22.34 billion fell short of estimates around $23.1 billion. That makes this a profit-led beat: margins and mix mattered more than top-line growth.
| Metric | 3Q 2026 | 3Q 2025 | Consensus / prior guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS (Financial Highlights) | $1.77 (+92%) | $0.92 | ~$1.57 |
| Revenue (Income Statement) | $22,335M (+9.6%) | $20,372M | ~$23,100M |
| Total segment operating profit (Segment results) | $1,382M (+64%) | $845M | |
| FY 2026 adjusted EPS guidance (Outlook) | $5.50–$5.80 | $5.15–$5.60 prior | |
| FY 2026 capital expenditures (Outlook) | $1.2–$1.3B | $1.3–$1.5B prior |
Biofuels and crushing were the decisive drivers. Ag Services & Oilseeds operating profit more than doubled to $778 million, with Crushing contributing almost all of the segment’s incremental gain; the company says crushing benefited from stronger North American biofuels margins, higher domestic demand and higher global energy prices. The result is strategically important because it validates the recovery thesis already embedded in ADM’s 2026 outlook. 〔0〕
The beat was helped by items that are not entirely recurring. ADM disclosed approximately $35 million of favorable mark-to-market and timing impacts in Ag Services & Oilseeds, mainly in Refined Products and Other. That does not erase the operating improvement, but it means the quarter’s reported strength overstates the clean run-rate somewhat. Meanwhile, Human Nutrition was still down 3% year over year, showing that the recovery is uneven rather than broad-based across every business. 〔1〕
The raised full-year outlook is the strongest signal in the filing. ADM lifted adjusted EPS guidance to $5.50–$5.80 from $5.15–$5.60, putting the midpoint modestly above the roughly $5.54 published consensus. The company also expects year-over-year operating-profit improvement in every segment during the fourth quarter, while cutting planned capital spending to $1.2–$1.3 billion.
Bottom line: This is a meaningful positive update to ADM’s recovery story: the biofuels-led profit rebound is arriving ahead of the market’s quarterly expectation and is strong enough to lift annual guidance. The main qualification is that some of the quarter’s upside came from favorable timing effects, while Nutrition remains comparatively weak.**
Q4 results and 2027 outlook
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