CARRIER GLOBAL Corp (CARR) · Oct 29, 2026 · Earnings
Beat — Adjusted EPS $0.87 vs ~$0.77 consensus
Carrier’s Q3 earnings beat consensus on revenue and adjusted EPS, powered by data-center demand, while the company trimmed its full-year EPS outlook.
Carrier is repositioning its climate-solutions portfolio toward higher-growth commercial and data-center cooling while working through weaker residential and transportation markets. Its prior disclosures already pointed to strong data-center demand and a substantial 2026 growth opportunity.
The quarter beat the published bar. Adjusted EPS was $0.87 versus roughly $0.77 consensus, while sales reached $6.263 billion versus about $6.08 billion expected. Adjusted operating profit rose 33% year over year to $1.091 billion, and free cash flow nearly tripled to $674 million. The core operating result was materially better than the market’s near-term expectation, even though GAAP earnings were dragged into a loss by a $3.1 billion goodwill impairment. 〔0〕
| Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales (Financial Highlights) | $6,263M (+12%) | $5,579M | ~$6,080M |
| Adjusted EPS (Financial Highlights) | $0.87 (+30%) | $0.67 | ~$0.77 |
| Adjusted operating profit (Financial Highlights) | $1,091M (+33%) | $823M | |
| Free cash flow (Cash Flow statement) | $674M (+201%) | $224M |
The strongest change is the demand signal, not just the earnings beat. Organic orders rose approximately 35%, data-center orders surged about 300%, and backlog exceeded $8.5 billion, up 60% from a year earlier. That gives Carrier more visibility into the commercial cooling growth story and supports management’s claim that the current momentum can extend into 2027.
The outlook is mixed rather than a clean raise. Full-year sales guidance increased to $23.8-$24.0 billion from approximately $23 billion, with organic growth now around 10%. But adjusted EPS guidance moved to $2.85-$2.90 from approximately $2.90, while adjusted operating profit and free-cash-flow targets stayed unchanged at roughly $3.5 billion and $2 billion. The company is raising the top-line ambition while conceding that taxes, tariffs, input costs, or mix leave less room at the earnings-per-share level.
The impairment makes the reported loss ugly but does not overturn the operating read. Carrier posted a $2.593 billion loss attributable to common shareholders from continuing operations, primarily because of the goodwill charge; adjusted earnings were $713 million. The more relevant business signal is that Americas sales grew 24% and operating profit rose 40%, while Transportation sales fell 3% and Asia-Pacific, Middle East & Africa margin declined year to date.
Bottom line: Carrier delivered a genuine quarterly beat and a much stronger data-center demand signal, but the full-year EPS outlook is not being raised. The event advances the growth story while leaving profitability conversion as the main unresolved issue.
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