The filing is weaker than the standing assumption implied by a stable freight business. No directly comparable published consensus surfaced for this calendar-year standalone filing; available market estimates refer to later fiscal periods, so the cleanest anchor is the company’s own 2024 baseline. Against that baseline, revenue fell 3.5%, operating income fell 33%, and net income fell 26%.
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8,778M | $9,092M | -3.5% |
| Operating income | $1,022M | $1,532M | -33.3% |
| Operating margin | 11.6% | 16.8% | -5.2 pts |
| Net income | $1,059M | $1,440M | -26.5% |
| Diluted EPS | $7.08 | $9.63 | -26.6% |
| Total shipments | 22.36M | 23.07M | -3.1% |
| Total tonnage | 10.31B lbs | 10.71B lbs | -3.8% |
| Composite revenue per shipment, excluding fuel | $314.15 | $313.80 | +0.1% |
| Composite revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel | $34.07 | $33.79 | +0.8% |
(Financial Highlights; Annual Operating Statistics; Non-GAAP Financial Measures)
The core problem is volume and cost absorption, not headline pricing. Shipments, tonnage, and average daily shipments all declined roughly 3% to 4%, while salaries, wages, and benefits rose to $4,206 million from $4,153 million despite the lower activity level. That combination drove operating expenses up 2.6% even as revenue contracted. (Annual Consolidated Statements of Income; Annual Operating Statistics)
Reported margins were additionally hit by $206 million of separation and other costs, but the underlying deterioration was still material. Excluding that charge, operating income would have been approximately $1,228 million, still about 20% below 2024. The fourth quarter shows the stress most clearly: a reported $14 million operating loss included $176 million of separation costs, implying roughly $162 million of operating income before that item versus $255 million in the comparable quarter. (Annual Consolidated Statements of Income; Quarterly Consolidated Statements of Income)
Pricing held up better than the income statement suggests, but not enough to offset the volume decline. Composite revenue per shipment excluding fuel was essentially flat for the year, while revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel increased modestly. Priority pricing improved, but Economy revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel declined to $38.01 from $39.00. The mix therefore shows limited broad-based pricing power rather than a meaningful demand recovery. (Annual Operating Statistics; Non-GAAP Financial Measures)
Net read: negative versus what investors would want from a standalone freight company. The filing shows a smaller freight network producing substantially less operating profit, with one-time separation costs explaining only part of the decline. The modest improvement in underlying yield is a genuine offset, but the whole filing still points to deteriorating operating leverage and weaker earnings power rather than merely a noisy transition year.
Read the original 8-K on SEC EDGAR ↗