The quarter fell short on both sales and adjusted earnings. Published estimates clustered around adjusted EPS of $0.15-$0.23 and revenue of roughly $3.13-$3.16 billion; Mosaic delivered $0.13 and $2.82 billion. The EPS shortfall was modest, but the revenue gap was near 10%, pointing to weaker volume and operating throughput rather than merely accounting noise.
| Metric | Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2025 | Expectation / read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.13 | $0.05 | $0.51 | Below published $0.15-$0.23 range (Adjusted EPS reconciliation) |
| Net sales | $2.82bn | $3.00bn | $3.01bn | Below published ~$3.13-$3.16bn range (Income Statement) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $407m | $416m | $566m | Down 2% sequentially and 28% year over year (Consolidated Earnings) |
| Phosphate adjusted EBITDA | $128m | $115m | $217m | Improved sequentially, but still down 41% year over year (Phosphate Earnings) |
| Mosaic Fertilizantes adjusted EBITDA | $60m | $79m | $159m | Down 24% sequentially and 62% year over year (Mosaic Fertilizantes Earnings) |
| Free cash flow | $(153)m | — | $305m | Cash outflow despite capital spending only modestly above last year (Free Cash Flow reconciliation) |
| Net debt | $5.56bn | $5.24bn | $4.13bn | Leverage increased sequentially and materially year over year (Consolidated Data) |
The headline loss was heavily affected by non-core items, but the underlying business was also weaker. The $0.86 GAAP loss included $0.99 per share of notable charges, led by a $162 million mark-to-market loss on Ma'aden shares, $69 million of phosphate write-offs, and foreign-exchange losses. Removing those items gets to positive adjusted EPS, but adjusted EBITDA still fell to $407 million from $566 million a year earlier—so the disappointment was not confined to one-time charges. (Q2 2026 Notable Items; Consolidated Earnings)
Higher fertilizer prices did not translate into phosphate profit. Phosphate DAP pricing rose to $773 per tonne from $668 a year earlier, yet sales volume declined to 1.4 million tonnes from 1.5 million and gross margin turned negative at $(4) per tonne, versus $67. Higher sulfur costs, lower production rates, and weaker fixed-cost absorption absorbed the price benefit. (Phosphate Results table)
Brazil remains the key near-term drag, and the filing explicitly points to a weaker third quarter. Mosaic Fertilizantes' adjusted EBITDA fell to $60 million from $159 million a year ago as volume declined and phosphate conversion cost rose to $141 per tonne from $84. Commodity-fertilizer production is being idled, and management says third-quarter segment EBITDA will be below Q2 because curtailments will affect the full quarter. That is a material deterioration in the near-term earnings setup, not just a recap of Q2. (Mosaic Fertilizantes Results; Outlook)
Potash provided stability, but not enough to offset the phosphate and Brazil slump. Potash adjusted EBITDA was essentially flat year over year at $278 million, with higher MOP pricing and gross margin offsetting lower volumes and higher unit costs. It remains the profitable segment, but its steadiness could not cover the much larger decline elsewhere. (Potash Results table)
Cash generation and debt add weight to the weaker operating result. Operating cash flow was $167 million versus $610 million a year ago, while $320 million of capital spending produced negative free cash flow. Net debt rose by about $320 million from Q1 to $5.56 billion, partly reflecting $460 million of net long-term borrowing during the quarter. The company expects later-year working-capital release and lower capital spending, but those are expected improvements rather than cash realized in this filing. (Cash Flow Statement; Consolidated Data)
Read the original 8-K on SEC EDGAR ↗