The headline numbers fell short of a high bar. Published estimates ranged around $0.22-$0.26 of EPS, versus $0.12 reported, while revenue of $1.09 billion trailed a roughly $1.24 billion expectation. The quarter was record-sized, but not a beat relative to what the market had already assumed.
| Metric | 2Q 2026 | Comparison / expectation |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.086B | Published expectation: ~$1.24B |
| GAAP net income | $121.9M | 2Q 2025: $70.7M (Income Statement) |
| GAAP EPS | $0.12 | Published estimates: ~$0.22-$0.26 |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.12 | 1Q 2026: $0.36 (Adjusted Net Income reconciliation) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $478.3M | 1Q 2026: $474.9M (Financial Highlights) |
| Free cash flow | $387.5M | 1Q 2026: $266.8M; 2Q 2025: $146.2M (Free Cash Flow table) |
| Cash balance | $1.052B | December 31, 2025: $553.6M (Balance Sheet) |
The earnings quality was weaker than the record revenue suggests. New Afton and Rainy River supplied the first full quarter of production, pushing gold output to a record 163,490 ounces and operating cash flow to $513 million. But Rainy River carried a $140 million non-cash purchase-price-allocation inventory charge, adding $2,036 per ounce to its reported cost and depressing earnings; even excluding that accounting distortion, adjusted EPS was only $0.12. (Operations — Rainy River; Cash Flow statement; Adjusted Net Income reconciliation)
The key forward-looking change was a lower and more expensive ramp at the acquired Canadian mines. New Afton’s nine-month production guidance was reduced to 50,000-60,000 ounces of gold and 40-50 million pounds of copper from 60,000-80,000 ounces and 50-65 million pounds. Rainy River’s gold range fell to 190,000-230,000 ounces from 230,000-275,000 ounces. Their cost ranges rose materially, including Rainy River to $2,700-$3,000 per gold ounce from $2,150-$2,350. (2026 Guidance — New Afton and Rainy River)
The consolidated production picture is now lower, while spending is higher. Company-wide gold guidance fell to 630,000-750,000 ounces from 680,000-815,000 ounces, with copper also reduced to 40-50 million pounds from 50-65 million. Capital-expenditure guidance increased to $520-$605 million from $437-$526 million, mainly because of Rainy River stripping and underground development plus added Silvertip spending. (2026 Guidance — Production and Capital Expenditures)
Cash generation and capital returns are genuine positives, but they do not erase the miss. Free cash flow reached $388 million, cash more than doubled from year-end, debt declined to $705 million, and the company repurchased $121 million of stock through July 31 while paying its first $0.02 semiannual dividend. (Financial Highlights; Liquidity and Capital Returns) The net read is still negative: strong metal prices and newly acquired assets produced record absolute results, but the quarter missed consensus and exposed a slower, costlier ramp than expected.
Read the original 8-K on SEC EDGAR ↗